Shillong: India’s real GDP is expected to grow between 6.5-7 percent in 2024-25, according to the Economic Survey 2023-24 presented in Parliament today by the Union Minister of Finance and Corporate Affairs, Smt Nirmala Sitharaman. The Indian economy has rebounded swiftly from the pandemic, with real GDP in FY24 being 20 percent higher than pre-COVID FY20 levels.
The Survey highlights that domestic growth drivers have supported economic growth in FY24, despite uncertain global economic conditions. It notes that India grew at an average annual rate of 6.6 percent during the decade ending FY20, reflecting the long-term growth prospects of the economy.
However, the Survey warns that any escalation of geopolitical conflicts in 2024 could lead to supply disruptions, higher commodity prices, revived inflationary pressures, and stalled monetary policy easing, potentially affecting capital flows and influencing the RBI’s monetary policy stance. The global trade outlook for 2024 remains positive, with merchandise trade expected to recover after a contraction in volumes in 2023.
The Survey emphasizes that leveraging government initiatives and tapping into emerging markets could expand exports of business, consultancy, and IT-enabled services. Despite core inflation being around 3 percent, the RBI has maintained interest rates due to concerns about the withdrawal of accommodation and the US Fed’s actions, delaying anticipated easing.
Overall, the Economic Survey indicates that India’s economy has shown resilience to various global and external challenges, with real GDP growing by 8.2 percent in FY24. This growth, driven by stable consumption demand and steadily improving investment demand, exceeded the 8 percent mark in three out of four quarters of FY24.
